asymmetry of risk, page-70

Interesting academic and theoretical discussion BUT very difficult to attribute market theory to a small oil and gaser such as TAP imho.

The TAP share price has been weak for two reasons :-
1) M&G dumped more than 12 million shares quickly at whatever price they could get (and refused Troy's offer to perhaps 'place' them). M&G are still our largest shareholder and given what has already taken place they COULD decide to sell the remainder. This makes potential buyers wary and for good reason.
2) Our 'shot at glory' with a 14% COS (and without any carry for the farmdown) was a duster. Market priced that it had little chance and there was little or no premium built into the share price for the possibility of success.

So now we have a cautious market with both buyers and sellers wary of each other's motives. As Auto has said it can trade with nearly a 10% differential some days on little volume. I admit to "trading" a portion of my holding and am currently both a buyer and seller. (It's my job !).
Also keep in mind that someone was in a hurry to buy half a million just ten days ago and chased it up to 55c to get set.

I forecast TAP moving up in the next few months as macro factors improve - as well as oil price strength, new Government, Manora matures and nears production.
I can see $1 in a year.