You have to think rationally about what the market values it at, how much has to be spent on it and realistically what that means. It comes with spending commitments of probably $25M, the whole block has recently been valued twice in the last 6 months at $7M. Why on god's green earth would someone pay more than say $20M or $28M for Derby 6 months later? Allowing for a 300-400% rise in valuation with court success, and pretending OBL aren't in continuous need of more placements as evidenced by the last 200k.. that might bring a takeover price of 4.5c for 100% of Derby (which OBL don't have) valued at $28M, 4 times it's last value. However at best OBL will have 75% with OXX and worst 37.5% if Backreef/BRU win outright, meaning IF OBL "win" on their best case scenario their Derby is worth maybe 3.3 cents inflated at 4 times it's last value.
It's a case of, the asset isn't as valuable as holders would want to be taken over for.. so it's a fanciful idea all round. Holders probably wouldn't sell for say 3.8 cents (assuming a bit extra as BRU could try and sell off the other assets) and I highly doubt BRU would value the block over $30M (more than 4 times what they paid Backreef for it a couple of months ago) in it's entirety and therefore wouldn't be offering more.
Basically anything more and you're asking that Derby is suddenly worth $40M or $50M (plus a ~$25M seismic, driling and testing campaign) when it was worth $7M 6 months ago and REY's permits with conventional oil (far more valuable) were valued at $18M each. Given they were $18M each I'm being generous using $28M as a figure.
Any higher valuations than mid to high 3's have to get around these facts.
OBL Price at posting:
2.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
