figurative toilet paper- pefo- alp scandal

Dear All,

Have a read and decide for yourself:-

Table 1: Summary of budget aggregates

Projections
Underlying cash balance- Excludes net Future Fund earnings.

2013-14 -$30.1 billion
2014-15 -$24.0 billion
2015-16 -$4.7 billion
2016-17 4.2 billion


Page 39:-

The Commonwealth Inscribed Stock Act 1911 limits the face value of relevant Commonwealth Government Securities on issue to $300 billion. Current estimates indicate that the limit will be reached in the 2013-14 financial year (around
December 2013).


pp 44-45:-

DisabilityCare Australia

In bilateral negotiations, the Australian Government has committed to provide temporary, untied financial assistance to some jurisdictions that expect to have their GST entitlements adversely affected during the transition to DisabilityCare Australia,the national disability insurance scheme (NDIS).

Under this commitment, the expected liability will depend on a range of factors including when all jurisdictions reach full scheme and any impact resulting from the Commonwealth Grants Commission’s 2015 Methodology Review, scheduled to be completed in February 2015. The Review will consider the most appropriate treatment Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2013 of disability services for GST distribution purposes, both during the transition to the NDIS and once the full scheme is operating nationally. Any impact on the Government’s budget is not expected to occur before 2016-17.


page 55:-

The PEFO incorporates the carbon price methodology introduced in the 2013-14 Budget. This methodology uses a three-month average of futures market prices in the forecast years, including the start of emissions trading in 2014-15. Carbon prices in the projection years of 2015-16 and 2016-17 are estimated using a linear transition from market prices to the longer-term modelled price of $38 in 2019-20 from the Strong Growth, Low Pollution Report. Based on this methodology, the carbon price is estimated to be $6.20 in 2014-15, $12.50 in 2015-16 and $18.90 in 2016-17.


page 56:-

The PEFO retains the arrival assumption and methodology from Budget(1,100 per month in 2013-14), updated for: the revision to the 10-year rolling average to include the impact of arrivals since the Budget; and revised estimates of the number of UMAs being placed on bridging visas reflecting the faster release into the community of pre-19 July arrivals (Table E1).

Table E1: Arrival rate assumptions (persons)

2013-14 Budget

2013-14 13,200
2014-15 8,160
2015-16 3,120
2016-17 3,120

PEFO (Economic Statement)

2013-14 15,600
2014-15 8,826
2015-16 4,452
2016-17 4,452

Includes an additional provision for actual arrivals in 2013 at the time of preparation.

Source: Department of Finance and Deregulation.

http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2013/Pre%20Election%20Economic%20and%20Fiscal%20Outlook%202013/Downloads/PDF/PEFO_2013.ashx