The negativity is justified as this stock is at ROCK BOTTOM.
But it also means the upside potential from here is HUGE.
Look at JDC Phosphate as a case in point (a non listed company in the phosphate game that is a pure IHP play):
- In September 2010 Minemakers invests $1m in JDC Phosphate to acquire 6.67% equity in JDC.
- This deal values JDC at approx $15m
- In August 2012 JDC Phosphate attracts additional investors, some of which are major players in the industry, including Mitsui & Co. (U.S.A.), Inc., Vulcan Phosphates LLC (a special purpose entity formed by the owners of Agrifos Fertilizer L.L.C), the Florida Opportunity Fund and Espirito Santo Ventures.
- The size of the deal is unknown, although what is known is that Minemakers' equity stake is diluted to 3.3%
- This means that the new investors acquired around a 50% stake.
- it is also known that JDC has spent at least $20m to build the plant, and that most of those funds were sourced from the new investors.
- This values JDC at a minimum $40m.
- In June 2013 Minemakers invests another $1m in JDC to take its stake from 3.3% to 5.8%.
- This confirms the JDC valuation at $40m.
- JDC will start earning revenue from the pilot plant (about 12,000 tons annually). At $1,000 per ton, this equates to $12m in revenue per annum.
- On a price to earnings ratio of say 12.5, this values JDC at $150m.
-JDC will also earn royalties from any company (including Minemakers) that they license to use IHP.
- Should this occur, all of a sudden JDC could be worth well in excess of $300m
In the space of 2 years, JDC has increased 267% in value and in another year or so, could increase 2000%.
A very realistic scenario IMO and MAK could follow a similar path.
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