Ann: 2013 half year report announcement and prese, page-38

re: Ann: 2013 half year report announcement a... The cash trend is disturbing.

2010 - 1.3 bill
2011 - 886 mill
2012 - 659 mill
2013 - 432 mill

At this rate, they'll be insolvent by 2015. I hope things turn around for them but in my opinion the AUD is still high, copper stocks are at five year highs and growing, and China's growth will drop to 4-6% next year. Copper and gold prices are also historically not that bad. If you can't eek out a profit at current levels, how you spose to if metal prices dip another 25% or the AUD rises from here (however unlikely).

On China, they are basically overstating house price increases and understating core inflation. We are slowly seeing this truth come out in the form of lower and lower actual GDP gains.

China's trillion dollar hole

If you take the NAV - 2.3 billion / shares outstanding you get $7.70 but we all know book values are way overstated. Whatever they say, you have to knock off about 50% or $3.85, which is where it is now. Take another 25% off and then you have a good buying range i.e. $2.88. I wouldn't buy it until it fell to that level and I can't see things improving until the fed finishes exiting the market.