The FY13 profit was in line with the broker's estimate. Merrills thinks the positive stock reaction was driven by an upbeat outlook for Australian steel operations including currency benefit, additional detail around increasing iron ore sales and also progress on debt reduction.
Earnings forecasts have been upgraded in FY14 by 14% but FY15 is reduced by 7% to reflect the offsetting impacts of a weakening Australian dollar and declines in steel demand from the Australian engineering sector.
The Neutral rating is retained and the price target is raised to $1.20 from $1.10.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.05 If ARI meets the BA-Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. BA-Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.53.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
CIMB Securities rates ARI as Underperform (5) -
The FY13 result showed the benefits of the decision to diversify the business that was made several years ago, in CIMB's view. Steel remains a drag, albeit its influence has been reduced significantly. Nevertheless, the broker thinks softer iron ore pricing in FY14 will offset some of the volume gains in mining.
The Underperform rating is maintained and the price target is raised to 95c from 84c as a result of a reduction in the house risk-free rate lifting the DCF valuation.
Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target). If ARI meets the CIMB Securities target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. CIMB Securities forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.39.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
Credit Suisse rates ARI as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Arrium's underlying result beat consensus and pleased the broker, albeit debt remains high and the steel outlook remains challenged. Stronger second half iron ore volumes and prices were a highlight.
Target rises to $1.20 from $1.10 but the broker has downgraded on the stronger share price.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.05 If ARI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.72.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
Deutsche Bank rates ARI as Hold (3) -
The FY13 earnings result was in line with consensus expectations and management expects some improvement in the second half of FY14 for steel demand.
Deutsche Bank retains a Hold recommendation as the stock is trading broadly in line with the increased $1.00 (87c) price target.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target). If ARI meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.75.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
JP Morgan rates ARI as Neutral (3) -
Arrium struck a more positive note on the domestic outlook compared with rival BlueScope ((BSL)), in JP Morgan's view. Management pointed to quote rates improving and a series of price increases across manufacturing and distribution. The broker has increased FY14-16 profit estimates by 4.9% on average.
The recommendation is Neutral and the target price is lifted to $1.20 from $1.10.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.05 If ARI meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.97.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
Macquarie rates ARI as Outperform (1) -
Arrium posted a solid result, close enough to the broker. The company delivered on its mining expansion plans and is achieving strong growth in mining consumables, the broker notes. Management has laid out a clear agenda of reducing costs, reducing debt and pursuing growth opportunities.
Target rises to $1.54 from $1.38. Outperform retained.
Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.39 If ARI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 28.50 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.04.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
UBS rates ARI as Neutral (3) -
Broker says mining ramp-up helped Arrium outpace expectations, delivering earnings about 5% ahead of UBS estimates.
Broker expects the momentum to continue and boosts its estimates about 10-15% over two years, anticipating higher iron ore prices and a further recovery in steel and that higher earnings should improve cash-based gearing ratios.
Broker says the stock has already been re-rated to reflect iron-ore prices and maintains its Neutral rating and price target of $1.20.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.05 If ARI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.00.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
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BA-Merrill Lynch rates BHP as Buy, Low Risk (1) -
In a broad sense, BHP's FY13 report was in line with expectations, comment analysts at BA-ML. The talking point is, of course, the decision to advance with capex plans for Jansen Potash. BA-ML estmates total capex at US$15bn and believes BHP has now indicated it really is serious about becoming a major player (and further diversified) in the world of potash.
BA-ML applauds the fact BHP is looking for a partner in this mega-project, projecting less cash drain for BHP shareholders. The analysts still prefer an acquisition. Earnings estimates have gone down but only slightly so with projected lower oil earnings offset by better performance from coal.
Price target remains unchanged at $42.50. Buy, Low Risk. Interesting: forward projections starting with FY14 suggest an unchanged dividend in years to come.
Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $36.54 Difference: $5.96 If BHP meets the BA-Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. BA-Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 120.88 cents and EPS of 258.60 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.13.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
CIMB Securities rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
For CIMB, the FY13 underlying earnings of US$11.8 billion were overshadowed by the approval of US$2.6bn in capital for its Jansen potash project. The investment metrics imply BHP is very positive on potash in the longer term. The broker thinks the decision will ultimately make the agricultural commodity the fifth pillar, behind iron ore, petroleum, coal and copper.
The Neutral rating is retained and the price target is raised to $39.40 from $35.70.
Target price is $39.40 Current Price is $36.54 Difference: $2.86 If BHP meets the CIMB Securities target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. CIMB Securities forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 118.89 cents and EPS of 249.68 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.63.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
Operating earnings for FY13 were in line with Citi's estimate but headline profit was 7% below because of higher tax and interest. The broker has left FY14 estimates unchanged with cost reductions offsetting lower oil production. FY15 has been upgraded 2%.
The Neutral rating is retained as the broker sees the stock as fairly valued. The price target is increased to $36.00 from $35.00.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $36.54 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target). If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Citi forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 122.86 cents and EPS of 259.49 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.08.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
BHP's result was messy and effectively a miss. Cost savings were below expectations, as are copper growth expectations. Management delivered a lot of news on forecasts but nothing much was new, hence the broker has not changed its view.
Neutral and $34 target retained.
Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $36.54 Difference: minus $2.54 (current price is over target). If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 114.93 cents and EPS of 214.01 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
JP Morgan rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
The result was mixed in the broker's opinion, with underlying earnings disappointing. The US$2.6bn investment in Jansen surprised JP Morgan, as returns on the project look challenging in the absence of significantly higher potash prices. For the broker this overshadows what appears to be solid cost saving progression.
The Neutral rating is maintained and the price target is reduced to $41.00 from $42.00.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $36.54 Difference: $4.46 If BHP meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 122.86 cents and EPS of 276.43 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -
BHP earnings fell short of consensus by about $1 billion but cost-out outperformed and dividends were firm.
UBS says the company issued lower Petroleum guidance but a fall in D&A charges has boosted the FY15 outlook and the broker has lifted net present value 2%.
BHP has cut about $1.2 billion off its capital expenditure guidance, which, combined with a $1.2 billion cut in net debt (half on half) and lower costs gives the broker cause for optimism.
UBS retains its Buy rating and $40 target price.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.54 Difference: $3.46 If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 120.88 cents and EPS of 238.78 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
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Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -
Bluescope's result beat the broker and hinted at possible market share gains but the problem lies with flat FY14 guidance which was poorly received by the market. The broker nevertheless notes the balance sheet is stable and suggests the A$ will support earnings going forward.
The broker thus retains Outperform while dropping its target to $6.26 from $6.44.
Target price is $6.26 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: $1.44 If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY14 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.09.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
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Macquarie rates PIR as Outperform (1) -
Papillon has delivered a strong set of drill results, offering the potential of a 15-20% increase in current resource, according to Macquarie.
The broker increases its target to $1.50 and $1.20 and suggests PIR offers a potentially high reward, and high risk, opportunity in West Africa.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.395 If PIR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in January. Macquarie forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.04.
