previous share price responses to news

Being relatively new to BTR (although I did own and trade AIM quite a few years back)I thought I would look back over the news of the last year or two to see what has driven the share price and what news has caused a spike one way or the other. To save others the work here are a few observations:

2012:

Perkoa being developed and Kitumba being drilled. Better resources environment with higher copper and gold prices.

Share price spike from 24/2/12 with 'Best ever grades at Kitumba" followed by "S36_032 confirms high grade copper". Ran from around $0.68 cents to $1.75 on 16/3/12. Rather like the way it tripled recently on "Best ever grades" announcement.

From there the share price faded all the way down to $0.83 on 31/8/12. Then an Update on 4/9/12 seems to have sparked interest with more good results but the main news was that the Scoping Study (started in March) was expected in Mid-September. By the time the scoping study was released on 17/9/12 the share price had reached $1.16 and then went on to spike to $1.46. So the anticipation of the scoping study lead to a rise of around 40% and the response to the study was a further 25% rise (total rise from low of $0.83 was 75%.


2013:

Perkoa was stil in development and China was still going swimmingly. We had 39% of Perkoa and things were going to plan there and at Kitumba. Then the turning point was 29/1/13 with major cost overruns at Perkoa announced. The market knew BTR would not be able to find the funding and assumed (correctly) that we would have to sell down equity in Perkoa our only soon to be producing asset. The share price fell out of bed and tumbled all the way to 93 cents ahead of the 11/03/13 announcement of the sell down to 27%. The China story and hence the general sentiment towards resources (and devlopers and explorers in particular) soured at about this time as well.

The final straw for invetsors followed not long after in early April with the Updated Mineral Resource which was disappointingly not an upgrade but a restatement of the same resource. Halo 20 cents by June!

Looking at what we might expect from the upcoming PFS

If we assume that after the spike to 63 cents on the recent "Best ever results" announcement the share price settled at around 43 cents, then if we see a similar rise in anticipation and then as a result of the PFS as we saw with the Scoping Study then a 75% rise from 43 cents gets us to 75 cents. Which is somewhere in the vicinity of what Dragone or dcob have been expecting as an initial response.

To get back to the Reverse Head and Shoulders target of around $1.00 and to go beyond that we will need the PFS to unreservedly confirm the economic viability of the underground option. It will need to make the case that mining this smaller resource (30 mt @ 2.14%) will be at least as profitable (ROE and total shareholder value) as mining what the market expected would be mined previously which was the 187mt at 1.17%. An increase in the high grade core resource will need to be hinted at and promised by year end IMHO.

Hope that's of some value to more recent investors. Probably old news to those that have been in BTR/AIM for some years.

Cheers

H