Very confident this deal is going to come to fruition
Compare the bauxite market now to when Xinfa first initiated the deal back in April and paid $500,000 for the exclusivity period.
- Bauxite prices strong around $60
- Chinese importing record amounts of bauxite
- Potential indo restrictions
- Director purchasing 1M shares @ 20c (not market related)
The stock was north of 24c at the time. The share price decline is IMO, purely a result of the market expecting a lack of activity during the DD phase and moving funds elsewhere.
However, in that time as I detailed above,the bauxite market has gone from strength to strength, as has ABZ.
Don't forget we can likely expect a JORC update from the assays which will only further validate Xinfa's early opinions.
An extension to the DD period here is an excellent sign, my thoughts are this will be a matter of 1 or 2 weeks tops.
I expect the market to shortly start pricing in some upside back into the stock, considering should Xinfa move on the deal there is a first tranche of $2M @ 38c per share.
That is 100%+ upside from current levels as a minimum, then factor in the JV funding, getting assets into production, offtake etc.
Compare that to the downside risk ? Low cash burn, quality assets located domestically, plenty of other potential suitors and partners, sufficient cash till mid 2014 and an every strengthening bauxite market.
Upside of Xinfa moving ahead is at least 100%+ from current price IMO. Downside risk is minimal, as the assets, cash and company are IMO still worth north of here without any Xinfa deal.
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