OMG I think that’s the first chart you have posted. Interesting you’re now exploring TA. It’s a long road ahead to learn this, but good luck, it’s an intriguing journey. Can I suggest though that you clear your head of this idea that institutions are all knowing and out to get retailers who always lose – it doesn’t help sound analysis or help you think.
OMG, Soho
My comments here are not intended as gloating, that’s not my style, but as someone who shorted that move from mid-May to the end of June for a 100% profit, can I make the following comments on your speculation of this price movement:
- There were derivatives freely available to take a short trade at that time,
- The fall had nothing to do with institutions, but was driven but tax-loss selling by retailers in an environment where no progress had been made by the company and little news announced, after an already long down trend.
- The opportunity to take that trade was available to any technical analyst or fundamental analyst or amateur punter who stood back and looked at the big picture rather than the day to day moves and thought about what was happening.
I made multiple posts on the likehood of this occurring at the time, including:
From my Post #9363494 on 21/5/13 at share price $0.60 “I would then suggest that given 50% of investors on the register are retailers and every long term holders has lost money, the tax loss selling over the next four weeks will take it down to $0.40. Hard to pick bottoms but that's the most likely scenario I suspect”.
And again in my Post #9370215 on 23/5/13 “the tax loses selling through June is going to drive this down without anything obvious to support it”.
The move to the June lows was predictable 6 months ahead of when it occurred. I’ll give you a big, big tip as well.
Next May and every May thereafter, do your research and find another company held 50% or more by retailers, that’s a former market darling where every buy and holder of the last 3 years is underwater, that has hugely underperformed its expectations, where almost everyone has given up hope, with no profits and seemingly overwhelming hurdles ahead of it. If you can also get a derivative over it that allows you to go short, then that will be a great trade for the 6 weeks into the end of June for the tax loss selling.
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