Hi andante, the details of the deal with Calimmune where not made public, however, the wording of the press release at the time was the same as the wording with the Regen deal ie, the deal is within expectations... The deal with Regen was made public (see one of my previous posts) and that was for $25K upfront followed by another $25K plus $100K for the start of the Pl trial, $500K at the start of a Plll trial and $1M after FDA approval followed by 4% royalties. So it is not too much of a stretch to assume that Calimmune got the same deal. This is further evidenced by the fact that BLT's accounts show no exceptional increase in revenue either at the time that Calimmune signed the licencing deal or at the time the trial started. Which leads me to believe that we will get about $1.65M by the time Cal-1 gets to the market.
Compare that to the deals listed on the my posting on Alnylam and the only conclusion you can draw is that Calimmune got a really, really cheap, bargain basement deal.
Mind you, the HIV market is predicted to be worth $22B by 2018. If Calimmune could get 20% of that ($4.4B) and we got 4% of that, we who have an income stream of $176M. But our core patent runs out in 2018 so where would that leave us?
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