The probability that oil migration has occurred into the trap, the timing of the trap creation vs the migration, the probability of a reservoir, the type of trap, the probability of seal integrity. If there has been other success in the same trap type in the same trend you can add that in.
Mush all those probabilities together and you get a rough final chance. 33% is actually very high in an unproven area. Something closer to 10% is the basic general rule of thumb unless you have a success very close by to calibrate things.
break out looming, page-19
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