nsw, don't say you weren't warned, page-12

Muzza,

I don't think Gittens has got it quite right - he is grabbing some facts that support his view (obviously Green)and ignoring others that don't suit him.
My understanding is that all the current LNG projects, eg GLNG, have their own resources that will be exploited to supply their respective LNG operations. This gas was never intended for the domestic market. Where the argument then leads is the extra gas they might buy from producers eg Beach,Santos to supplement their requirements. This is gas that could either be contracted domestically or for export but it would only be a relatively small proportion of their total requirements and hence would be part of a domestic supply/demand equation. If there is an increase in supply of this part of the overall gas requirement clearly it would help to keep prices down.
As the cost to produce CSG would be roughly the same, say $2/gj, whether it is going to export or for domestic use, the LNG companies would be better off exploiting their own reserves rather than buy from other producers at $6 to $9.
At a 6$ domestic price there is still enough margin for the domestic producers to make a good profit.
So, I also agree that there will not be a gas shortage but I also think that the domestic price will not be as high as some are saying and certainly there is no need for a "reserve" policy if reserves such as MEL's are exploited.

P