peb announcement , page-5

Hell

For starters (the next few years), should PEB deliver around its $100m pa revenue target (in whatever currency lol), CDY gets $2m in royalties.

The CX Bladder test cost about $500. Although CDY's royalty could be more than 2%, analysts assume 2% for calculation purposes.

So how many tests in the US ? I would concentrate on all of the hematuria cases as these patients need initial testing with CX Bladder. Only 5% will actually have bladder cancer and thus require ongoing monitoring with CX Bladder.

7.5m patients x 500 x 2% is a theoretical USD75m p.a. royalty stream but at the moment PEB has nothing like the capacity to perform that number of tests. Will PEB become a T/O target??

Then there is Europe so all the numbers and calculations go into a bit of a scramble.

Other future players? For CDY it does not matter because IF they include a midkine target they will pay a royalty.

Other drivers? This test is cheaper than invasive first look alternatives at a time of global health budget crisis (due to aging boomers).

cheers