I broadly concur with your numbers - I posted my workings at 1mtpa and a $500 per tonne ($10 mmbtu)LNG price some time back. If I plug in 2mtpa and $750 per tonne I get closer to 1.2x PE.
The difference is the net back cost of gas. You use $5 mmbtu. If I net back the profitability of the PSC (ie the gas production) and the power station (because a large chunk of the power output with run the compressors) I get the cost of gas closer to $1.25 - $1.50 mmbtu.
The caveat here is that I am not 100% sure I have the PSC economics 100% right - not wrong or even wildly off - just not 100% right.
Can I ask if you included the profitability of the PSC and the PPA into your calculation?
Cheers
Del
EWC Price at posting:
45.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
