waiting game, page-28

  1. 94 Posts.


    Dj

    Thanks for ur valuable contributions over the past wks

    I've had a look at ur logic/odds. For every $1k you might 'invest', you have an 85% chance of losing 'at least' half ur money. While there's a 15% chance of making 3.5 times ur money.

    So that's
    .85 x .5 = .425
    +
    .15 x 3.5 = .525

    Meaning the odds that you believe you are 'betting' on are no better than what is available on a casino roulette table - a return index of slightly less than one.

    I'm invested here because I believe the risk / reward of significantly greater than 1, though I'm not as confident as the very well informed Timber7 who estimates ~70% chance of success.

    Note of course that the numerical logic above is based on 105 alone and excludes the mutually exclusive probability of success at 120.
 
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