summary in sgy ann. from 1 oct. re paloma, page-14

Unawares

Clearly you are unaware of the fact that many junior oilers are "Gambling outcomes"

Either the oil is there or it is not

If it is we are genius's and if its not we are poor and stupid

Theres not in between mate

And theres no free lunches when it comes to these specs

If your not in when the news comes out, and its good news, then you will be paying a "Fair" price and not a cheap price.

Therefore whilst we have spectacular gains you might have market average gains or even losses if you pay too much in the ensuing buying frenzy.

So your logic is completely flawed