big news - thursday, page-3

Above is a Candle Stick chart for the SP500.

In America:

SP500 -0.49%
Dow Industrials -0.39%
Nasdaq100 -0.19%
Dow Transports -0.61%
Russell 2000 -1.47%

Comment: A moderate down day; volume was on a par with the previous three days. The feature of today’s trading was the weakness in R2K. That’s looking like a “sell”. If R2K is a “sell”, then the main market indices are likely to fall, too. The chart is not yet conclusive, but close (see below). Transports has been relatively weak recently. That’s another indicator that all is not well with this market

In Europe.

French CAC: -0.09%
German DAX: -0.13%
London FTSE: +0.04%
Italy MIB: -0.47%

New York Stock Exchange NewHighs/NewLows. 224/13. Ratio: 94.5%. NL less than NH. In the “Do Not Sell” Zone (above 80%). New Lows are benign. Nasdaq NH/NL 173/30. Ratio: 85.2%. There’s nothing very threatening in those figures. NH/NL is used as a confirmation indicator rather than a leading indicator.

Technical Comment on the SP500 (closed at 1763.31)

Indicators:

MACD Histogram: Above zero. Positive, but dropping.
MACD: Above zero. Positive.
RSI.9 is at 68. Falling below 70. Negative. Bears want this below zero.
Stochastic. 94.6. Overbought. Below its signal line. Negative. Bears want this below 80.
CCI.14: +86.7. Falling below +100. Possible negative divergence. Bears want this below zero.
Money Flow: 78.7. Falling from above 80. Negative. Bears want this below 50.

Support and Resistance:

40-Day TMA: 1699.3.
Major Horizontal Support: 1725.5 (-2.14%)
150-Day TMA: 1655.6.

Momentum indicators are flashing warning signals. MFI hit above 80 and fell below 80 last night. Usually we need to see a negative divergence before a sell-off. But the September pull-back didn’t do that. The MFI hit 80 and then the SPX pulled back almost 5%. So it is not a necessary condition. Any time MFI gets above 80, its time to think defensively.

There’s plenty of support under the current levels, so it’s difficult to imagine a serious correction. But let’s see what happens when/if the index gets back near the supports of the rising bull channel.

Last night in NY, BHP down -0.85% and the Australian shares ETF (EWA) -0.56%. Gold was down -0.13%. Copper down -0.44%. Ozzie Dollar down -0.09%. There’s not much joy in that for Australia.

Here’s a short term daily chart for IWM – ETF for the Russell2000 (R2K):

Indicators have all turned down. The chart needs to break below the pivot to be conclusive.

Redbacka.