it's time to go long, page-49

Thought I would revisit my post from 2 weeks ago where I made a call “It’s time to go long” and update some of the figures I included as per the table belo (A bit rushed this morning but I'll check again after conference call)

Essentially all on track with that post, but with some minor adjustments.

I had assumed $30/kg average through the period in a slowly rising market. The average may turn out to be that still, but OK we know the early figures so I’ve adjusted as above. (And yes Ausheds, you got the early number closer)

Tonnes produced is on track with expectations, but needs confirmation next quarter.

Costs of production and customer demand on track.

Fundamentals look good for building a medium term or long term position from here.



ASSSUMED PRODUCTION VOLUMES & CASHFLOW FY13/14
(Note that 11,000tonnes p.a. /12mths = 917tonnes produced/month)

Sept Qtr 253t x $22/kg = $5,566,000 Gross Revenue

Oct 2013 30% 275t x $25/kg = $6,875,000

Nov 2013 50% 459t x $25/kg = $11,475,000

Dec 2013 80% 734t x $28/kg = $20,552,000

Jan 2014 100% 917t x $30/kg =$27,510,000

Feb 2014 100% 917t x $30/kg =$27,510,000

Mar 2014 100% 917t x $35/kg =$32,095,000

Apr 2014 100% 917t x $35/kg =$32,095,000

May 2014 100% 917t x $40/kg =$36,680,000

June 2014 (Nil due to shipping and documentation time. Cash received FY15)

Estimated Cash received this Financial Year = $200,358,000 FY13/14

Tonnes produced and delivered this Financial Year = 6,306 tonnes

Cost of Production $18/kg. $20/kg all in = $126,120,000 Operating Total Cost

Margin on CASH RECEIPTS to June 2014, therefore = $74,238,000 Gross margin