well and truly burn and bleeding., page-3

Hi Phanotomtrader, short answer, if you did not sell to now, I would not sell now.

Here is my view or how I would wrap my head around it. You bought Qty 1000 at $30.30 means you paid and it was worth $30,300. Today it is worth $9,940.

1. Given you took the decision to and were able to outlay $30,000 on one stock means you were able to take some risk and part with 30k (as many would not and would go out and buy something tangible with that money like a car).

2. Given that you bought them at least as far back as March 2012, you have been capable of taking the sell pressure and gruelling ride since then. You have hardened and would have developed tolerance.

3. You have taken a $20,360 or 66% fall. Selling now at $9.94 or a potential $7.30 bottom, is only going to increase the loss from $20,360 to $23,000.

I think you have taken the bulk of the fall. I think we are close to the bottom now or close to some interesting action. For the sake of minimising the loss from $23,000 to $20,360, at this stage is useless. I would keep holding.

In fact, I would buy Qty 1000 more here at under 10's. You paid 30k for Qty 1000 then and were able to do that. Now you can get Qty 1000 for only $9,940.

You have already lost 20k. If NCM goes bankrupt (unlikely), means you will lose 30k. If you buy Qty 1000 more for a further outlay of $9940 and NCM goes bankrupt, means you will lose $39,940 in the worst case. Now much difference. All in the same ball park. But if NCM recovers, you will have your money back at $20.12 and would have completed an amazing experience and lesson.

If NCM does not recover, it will be one of very few large cap stock that has gone down and has never recovered. No matter how grim, I have seen again and again (providing it was a large company) where a recovery has finally come. Examples are ORI, TLS, QBE and even SUN.