Just going over some figures from the Breakaway Research report from June (be nice if they updated that when JORC resource comes in ) and trying to project and monetise that.
Based on Soviet data, Khadzhikongan could contain 24-60,000 T of Cu. (That 6Mt @ 1%)
I think 60k is more a par figure, than an upper figure, as Soviet exploration" was constrained by technology and drilling limitations." ... And ... "With the use of modern exploration techniques, Great Western (and TKS) now has an excellent opportunity to prove up significant resources in a highly prospective land package."
Based on $7138 LME copper price and guessing at 10% profit, that is $42.8m for the JV and maybe even at 20% profit when it's 85.6m
Altyntobinsky is next - 118 to 295kt ... again using the soviet upper limit that's $210m at 10% profit
All up, the eight prospects were estimated at 775 to 1923 kt. Even the 775kT gives profit of $553m and 1923kt gives $1.372b conservatively assuming only 10% profit.
And as they say, "The above exploration target also makes no allowance for the additional 120 prospects identified in the project area."
Please feel free to correct some of my guesswork and figures. Just food for thought when these results come... not sure if anyone is expecting JORC resource to be defined with them, or with later diamond drill results, what do you think? These first complete set of results for Khadzhikongan are crucial for market perception - if they are close to the upper Soviet estimate, or a beat, then that has implications for all 8 prospects and people will project increased factors across them all. So let's hope we see more than 6Mt and/or higher grades than % and maybe also get an idea of the real profit margin.... we are going to make a lot of money even if we just get mid-range results frankly, but if we get great results, you can see estimates of $1.3b turning to a lot of billions. From the copper alone and there will be others. Can't be long before we know... Then we can think about drilling Doolgunna in q1 14
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