q3 sales were weak in Q3 2012 as well as in Q3 2013 - hard to draw too much from that but could help explain the price movements here?.
i read in an article (link supplied below) that Lilly is looking for 168m in Axiron net sales for FY13 which would put Q4 sales around 43/44m... so if true, would be 127% growth on FY12 net sales... hardly a disaster IMO. the key thing going forward is what further US market share gains Axiron can make and how fast - are we talking about 20% by 2017, 30% by 2017 or something higher. That is what drives the value here!!
my DCF model is telling me - even with modest market growth (15% and slowing in the outer years), slow US market share growth to 20% by 2017 and modest international growth - ACR is worth a lot more than where it is trading - but hey don't believe me do you own numbers and research :-)
"AbbVie’s Androgel may generate $1.14 billion this year for the North Chicago, Illinois-based drugmaker, an increase from $874 million in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lilly’s Axiron is expected to produce $168 million in 2013 sales from $24 million in 2011 when the Indianapolis-based company introduced the drug. "
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