about to fall into the abyss..classic h and s, page-6

q3 sales were weak in Q3 2012 as well as in Q3 2013 - hard to draw too much from that but could help explain the price movements here?.

i read in an article (link supplied below) that Lilly is looking for 168m in Axiron net sales for FY13 which would put Q4 sales around 43/44m...
so if true, would be 127% growth on FY12 net sales... hardly a disaster IMO. the key thing going forward is what further US market share gains Axiron can make and how fast - are we talking about 20% by 2017, 30% by 2017 or something higher.
That is what drives the value here!!

my DCF model is telling me - even with modest market growth (15% and slowing in the outer years), slow US market share growth to 20% by 2017 and modest international growth - ACR is worth a lot more than where it is trading - but hey don't believe me do you own numbers and research :-)

Reported Axiron net sales (US$m) Average market share (%)
Q1 2011 - 0%
Q2 2011 3.2 2%
Q3 2011 5.3 6%
Q4 2011 15.5 9%
Total 2011 24.0 5%
Q1 2012 16.2 11%
Q2 2012 17.7 12%
Q3 2012 16.0 12%
Q4 2012 23.9 13%
Total 2012 73.9 12%
Q1 2013 37.1 14%
Q2 2013 47.1 14%
Q3 2013 40.6


"AbbVie’s Androgel may generate $1.14 billion this year for the North Chicago, Illinois-based drugmaker, an increase from $874 million in 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lilly’s Axiron is expected to produce $168 million in 2013 sales from $24 million in 2011 when the Indianapolis-based company introduced the drug. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-05/testosterone-drugs-raise-heart-risk-in-1-billion-market.html