in the first gulf war did not oil futures double on the first night then collapse on the second?
why do you think this time may would be different?
I can see oil jumping further from current prices when the first real clash occurs but hey isnt this event is just as one sided as the first? life has its suprises yes so there is always a risk something different occurs this time......
And post war, is not a collapse on the oil price a high probability due to the flood of iraqi oil onto the market?
I can see your strategy working, but I think there will only be a narrow window to jump out. In fact the peak in oil prices may actually be very close already as the market has seen this before and will preempt it even more so .......??????
