Comment: Ooops. We got it wrong yesterday. That's what the market seemed to say today. Most of yesterday's losses were reversed today in the light of good/bad Jobs numbers and poor Consumer Confidence numbers. In the Jobs numbers, unemployment fell but participation dropped and lots of the new jobs were part time ones. The end result - the market is back to where it was on Wednesday. It's this behaviour that makes one want to believe in A Random Walk Down Wall Street.
In Europe.
French CAC: -0.48% German DAX: -0.03% London FTSE: +0.17% Italy MIB: +0.52%
New York Stock Exchange NewHighs/NewLows. 109/61. Ratio: 64.1%. NL less than NH. Out of the “Do Not Sell” Zone (above 80%). Nasdaq NH/NL 122/38. Ratio: 76.3%. The NYSE NH/NL figure doesn't confirm the bullish tone in the SP500 Index. New Lows rose into the panic sell level (above 50), and New Highs were the lowest this week.
Technical Comment on the SP500 (closed at 1770.61)
Indicators:
MACD Histogram: Below zero. Negative. MACD: Above zero. Positive. RSI.9 is at 60.8. Rising back above 50, negating the previous day's signal. Stochastic. 64.6. Breaking below 80. Negative CCI.14: +38.2. Bears want this below zero. Money Flow: 57.1. Bears want this below 50.
Support and Resistance:
40-Day TMA: 1714.1. Major Horizontal Support: 1725.5 (-2.55%) Major Oblique Support: 1705.06 (-3.7%) Major Horizontal Resistance: 1771.96 (+0.08%)
The SP500 broke back above the neckline of the small, skewed H/n/S pattern. So that's a failure. The "sell" on the RSI has also been negated. As of yesterday, "sells" hadn't been given on the CCI and MFI. CCI needs to go below zero and MFI below 50.
Today's action leaves the market in limbo. A lot of technical damage was done to the market on Thursday, we have to wait and see if that has really been repaired. A break back above horizontal resistance would be bullish. Thursday's action may have been a capitulation day - bears were exhausted - and the market had nowhere to go but up. Let's see what happens Monday.
Not showing up in any of the above was the extremely good performance of the Financials in NY. The Financials Sector was up +2.33% and the strongest of the nine SP Industry Sectors. Financials have been a drag on the market since the middle of October. A resurgent Financials Sector could be the beginning of a new leg up in the market. (See below for the chart.)
Last night in NY, BHP up +0.53%. The Australian shares ETF (EWA) +0.38%. Gold ETF was down -1.49%. Copper down -0.89%. Ozzie Dollar down -0.8%. Steel ETF +1.67%%. Apart from the Steelers figure, those are, at best, lack lustre figures for Australia on Monday.
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