It is clearly more down-beat, but given where we are at i think it is a fair view on ACR at this point in time. I would like to see further market share gains over the next 12mths before getting too bullish on this company.
As an aside my model has FY14 net sales down for US$200m vs Bells view of US$214 - so i'm not to far away from this. This would suggest that another $50m of milestone payments will be paid on top of the $25m already scheduled - most likely landing in FY15
My only issue with this report is that the analyst does not appear to count the international (ex US) Axiron opportunity or the other produce opportunities such as Recuvyra, Ellavie (estradiol spray – EU), Evamist (estradiol spray – US), Testosterone MDTS for women - i think these are worth something to ACR? any other views here?
FY15 just looks too pessimistic for my liking... Bell is calling Axiron royalties of $30m in FY15 while i see at least $38m based on $237m net sales / 15.6% market share). Am i being too bullish here? i also think we could see further $4m upside with international sales.
ACR Price at posting:
$2.57 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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