emotions run high, page-11

For me the analysis is quite clear; this a stock with a high proportion of short-termers who were hoping to ride a high wave of interest leading up to the decision, but not be holding for the decision itself. They have seen this puppy boom several times in the past when we all thought a resolution was coming - prior to it being deferred again.

The majority of short-termers want the quick rise in SP, without the risk of the loss. They don't want to be holding this stock when the music stops.

Most of us thought we'd be around .03 now, 50% higher than the reality we face. The fact that no one knows when this case will finish (some people say 1.5 weeks, others are adamant its early next year), has created a barrier for others to buy in with the intention of also making a short-term profit prior to the decision and there are quite simply not enough 'true believers' that want to be holding when the judge stands and delivers.

As a result, we are seeing very low levels of 'genuine' trading and little SP fluctuation. The RM purchase was a great sign; however, that confidence was reflected in the SP only briefly, as it was overwhelmed by short-termers taking the opportunity to divest as they realised the run up to this one is not like what we have seen in the past and what we were all expecting.

I expect this to be the case until decision time. Any further positive news may spike the SP, but it will be overcome quickly with people taking the opportunity to cut away before the big risk comes through.

I'll be honest, I had planned to sell half of my holdings prior to the decision to hedge against losing the case. I bought extra early on for exactly that reason. I'd be surprised if this wasn't the strategy for most of us.

Not enough people want to hold this stock, or at least their current level of this stock when the ruling comes through and that is why the SP is not trending north.

Agree/disagree - thoughts??