1% penetration now $388m reoccurring rev, page-23

Fair enough easy9..I have learned "don't post when you're sick!!" Everyone has down days mate, no need to be rude..if you read previous posts I'm not a "it's going up/down" contributor.

The time out has given me an opportunity to think about an aspect of the ALT story that has gained a lot of attention; the "15% of women surveyed said they would consider using PeriCoach if they had UI problem". I expect that getting real evidence on "actual" intention would be very difficult:
- The technology is new and therefore difficult for the average person to fathom..because it's method of delivery, I expect some would have a negative initial reaction too that might be overcome with more information.
- The decision to use or not, would be influenced greatly by GP awareness (do they know about it?), the mind-set of the patient (whether they are "self-determined" or "Doctor Trusting" - more below on that) and the level of trust/background between the doctor and patient (also discussed a lot in research - although I have found nothing specifically on UI issues).
- Age has quite some bearing on the above, they are complex interactions.

I believe that they have taken a simplistic approach to their research so as not to get bogged down in trying to assess the impacts of the above; 15% seems like a significant enough and conservative number to run with for the company (esp multiplied by the market opportunity, which is enormous).

IMO that the number would be much higher in reality:
- We know the clinicians who have seen it overwhelmingly support it, especially considering few other palatable options.
- We know there's a spectrum of women from "self-determined" to "doctor-trusting". In a study I read http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijfm/2013/478498/ there was a finding that older women are more "doctor-trusting", preferring to leave those decisions to their doctors.
- For women who are self-determined, they are less likely to be swayed by the opinions of their GP, HOWEVER, when they assess the options that are available, intuitively, PeriCoach would seem much more appealing than surgery or assisted exercise. I also think these women would understand that having data to discuss between themselves and their GP would greatly improve the outcome.

In short, the "intended" uptake rate could be a lot higher in reality than what the research uncovered (and not just based on "the women I've spoken to have said XYZ"). With GPs advocating, real-time feedback, indicators of progress, meaningful GP/client feedback/analysis, an online support community etc…it's easy to see this could become very popular, very quickly (esp if the PR machine works well - a "New solution to a not-often discussed problem").

I will re-state my sombre sentiment from previous sick post; I am excited to see the reaction from the broker road show and look forward to a significant re-rate in the not-too-distant future…certainly the buyers already seem to be gathering by the day and any (positive) news will see this take off in a big way IMO.