Good summation. yep the only thing that will derail this is the vendor welching on the option contract. but given the $8m they will pocket plus the free carry, cannot see them welching.
if it turns out to be a porhpory, you are dead right 60c in a walk. moreover if its a porhpory.... BHP and RIO will want it and will have it....but then we are getting way ahead of ourselves. We would be talking $/share not c/share.