valentine's massacre, page-10

re: dow below 7000 by end feb NCP was sold off on Friday in Australia despite the stock being up in the usa on Thursday night.

On reflection the aussie conversion price was mainly the reason due to the spike in the Aussie dollar from 59c to 59.5c which created an arbitrage on NCP.

The dollar has come back to the middle of that range over the weekend,the war risk is reducing in the short term and NCP was up strong on Friday night in the USA despite the lead down from Australia.

On the conversion the NCP price was closer to 11 than 10.70 where it closed here on friday.

Those that shorted on the arb may be in need of cover on the open,and those fund managers that have reduced their exposure against the index may need to top up.

Its to early to say but NCP may be in for a little move in the next 4 weeks to the upside.

Speak to your broker and do your own thing.

I hold ncp calls.