arrowsmith 3, page-108

Chrizzo,

back when it was at 8-9 cents, thewhole sector was floating in the clouds. They're all back down to earth now, manay of them having retreated by 50-100% or more.


In that period, we all had hope!
Hope that NWE could replicate and even improve upon the 4mmscf per day from A-1.

We now know this is not anywhere near possible with A-2.
Hope is gone.
Add to that the numerous delays (announced at the last possible moment) and terribly worded announcements ...well, there's not much hope anymore.

The expectations were that A-2 vertical would be commercial and it isn't. This is going to mean more dilution in the resource of capital base.


So yeah, around 1.4-1.8 is what I'd say is a fair price given every last bit of hope has been extinguished from A-2 and the company is now pinning everything on A-3.

There is no prospect of this company becoming cashflow positive for another 18 IMO.

They won't spud A-3 until Q4 of next year IMO.
They still need to finalise their plans, book a drill and frack spread. These aren't found in abundance in Australia.

Then we can look forward to the foreseeable unforeseen delays that we are all accustomed to with NWE.