cba target price, page-13

Alpha,

Interesting post. I would like to add a couple of observations....

The Sept 01 low was a 79.7% retracement of the movement from the March 00 low to the June 01 high - ie almost spot on to a fib 78.6% retracement.

The current price is almost spot on to a fib 78.6% retracement of the movement from the March 00 low to the June 02 high.

The current price is almost at the downtrend line that captures the lows of July 02 and November 02.

This stock has a strange habit - the time period between significant lows that immediately preceed a major upward movement has been averaging about 18 months (viz 3/97, 10/98, 3/00, 9/01) and we are approaching that again - coincidence?

From an Elliott Wave perspective, it appears that we are completing wave 5 - also of interest that each wave has a clear 3 wave (abc) pattern.

Bottom line - there are a lot of converging technical patterns / indicators to suggest that the downtrend may be reaching a conclusion. I would advise caution at the moment and watch for any sharp movements upwards. The last two downward movements (March 00 and Sept 01) have been followed by very sharp initial rises of about $6 in seven weeks.

Remember, the market is irrational in the short term and often does things that do not make sense from a fundamentals perspective - if we start getting a rise of any significance, there are a lot of shorts in this stock right now who will scramble to cover and then we will find this thing back up in the high $20's before you know it.

Regards,

Jaysee