ncm in the $7's, page-5

Well, the $7.30's I mentioned a month ago is now upon us and happened quicker than we all imagined.

NCM has been pricing something in past 17 trading days by falling by 26%. Particularly unresponsive after 20th November where AUD gold price went up by around $35. Unclear what NCM was pricing in past 7 days.

Gold price returns to November 20th lows and NCM adds on further falls of 6%.

Sure NCM is trading at 2003 levels, where the gold price was $400-600 AUD but seems the current condition of the company is such that even an AUD gold price of AUD 1340 (more than double those days) is not enough to stop the shares trading at 2003 levels. The difference being the existence of debt now and higher costs as SG regularly points to.

Shares price retarded by a decade and offering no resilience to a gold price falling to levels that are still more than double those days. Lost decade for NCM. Poor management for the current state of shares? Surely the share price should be more resilient at gold prices at $1340 AUD and after 10 years.

Good or poor management of a large Australian company? Hedging?

So it must be the fear from the size of debt at this time with the threat of gold going lower.

Let's see what the final price will be that prices in all of NCM's conditions.

Let's see at what price the take-over gets triggered.

Meanwhile, looks like it is time to double up today.