ocean wide interests, page-8

"They want 19.9% as cheaply as possible, not 16.8%."

In that case they won't participate in the rights issue at all. If NAAIL did the same, from the same motive, then IMO the rights issue would be a resounding flop, MA would be left with 20m shares they don't want and the company would be short a significant amount of $$$ and you would see the sp drop dramatically, with OW being able to take advantage of the drop buying up to their 19.99% limit.

btw folks, I've included the options OW converted in my numbers of shares on issue, but not anyone else's, as most people leave it until the last moment to convert. All I am pointing out is that, if OW want their 20% of shares, they don't have to go to the market to buy all of them. They can convert their options early. This has two benefits to OW:

they increase their holdings without pushing the sp up at all (rather, it should drift downwards slightly with the dilution);

and it provides finance to the company so OW can get their copper.

Yes, the price should rise, but only if there isn't an overhang from a known seller. MA are not in the business of investing in copper mines. No, I doubt that they are dills, but they are taking a risk for 5% of the deal. Even at these levels they can probably sell the options and shares for more than $2.375 which would give them a profit, taking their 5% into account. So, even if they get the full $85m, plus the $100m from Minsheng - if MA have 20m shares I can't see it going up too far. IMO they'll want their money back quickly so they can do more deals.