I completely agree. The additional 7 TCF upside mentioned by NSAI above and beyond the best (mid) case of 3.2 TCF for the 4.5Ma zone is definately still blue sky. I didn't mean to infer otherwise. The point I was attempting (badly I suspect) to make it that blue sky is still on the table.
Every step of the way as we get more accurate information about each zone there is the possibility that some of the upside (or even some of the mid case) becomes less likely, as is the case now with the 5.5Ma zone. Armed with today's announcement we know that we still have blue sky and lots of it. We agree that this is in addition to and will be valued separately to the mid case estimates.
Might be some time before we know if the blue sky will turn into something more tangible but the fact that its still there is very significant IMO. The market has been sitting on the side of caution now for quite some time. The market dares not price in even the low case in this evvironment. Should these zones flow quality product (4.5Ma in particular) then the mid case can start to be priced in. If the blue sky looked less likely as a result of what is now known then the SP upside would be more limited. IMO once mid case looks likely then the blue sky will have real speculative value and the fact that the blue sky looks to be as much as 200% more than the mid case is good news for punters and could mean a very wild ride for those wanting to play the game. When speculation starts its all about blue sky.
NEN Price at posting:
33.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
