tpt to takeover jka at 11.2c per share, page-67

Crows - You are right on the negativity that could change to positivity if the share price of TPT rises. At the current SP I feel that TPT are getting JKA for too cheap but would change my view if this rose.

I am not against the takeover in general, I actually agree that the merger of these 2 equals is favourable to both IF the value is fair.

You are wrong though that 3rd party drilling is zero risk. If both Cairn and Longreach fail with their current drills and say Cairn fail again in Jsnuary, epect the market to cool massively on Morocco.

If you don't believe me, take Namibia as an example. Whilst some of the companies have drilled in Namibia and failed, ALL of the small companies in Namibia have there acreage now essentially valued by the market at nothing due to the apparent failure. Don't run the risk of forgetting that this could happen to TPT. Obviously on the other hand, if they come in expect TPT to gain from this. Where there is risk there is always return, but don't discount the risk.

This is exactly why JKA shareholders are a bit sceptical about this takeover. The JKA board have gone out of there way to ensure that they don't take risks with JKA shareholders. They have taken lower risk approaches on the 2 proven areas (Nigeria and Tunisia) and have then acquired some high risk exploration BUT the difference between this and Morocco, is this will be delayed exploration, and the idea was that Aje would be producing prior to this allowing JKA to have proven assets provide support to their share price.

Bear in mind that if the current Morocco drills fail, and the TPT / Galp well fails. Its fair to assume the market will start to value Morocco as they do Namibia and therefore TPT shareholders would get far more of a company than they should. This takeover seriously increases the risk for JKA holders, which is why I am sceptical.

I have far more in JKA than I would have in a more exploration led company like TPT, therefore I want to see JKA getting taken out at a fair value rather than cheap, so that if I wanted to derisk (which I likely would if the takeover comes off) then I would want to do so at a fair value.