Mate, would you give up that line on the LIC... you have provided zero evidence on this forum other than hearsay. BBY is at the very bottom of the broker range - i have read their research and even posted the link. It is one opinion and very very poor one at that (IMO).
Other brokers are cautious but more realistic in my opinion. Mac bank is the most bearish of the mainstream / credible research analysts and they are at $2.43
BellPotter is at $2.65 - cautious but with a very good reasoned report and forecast IMO (have posted the link previously)
Even the Morningstar research analyst pulls together a better argument than Dennis Hulme at BBY - Morningstar has a firvalue estimate of $4.20 (happy to post the report if there is interest?)
CIMB Securities do not appear to have updated the view on this and are sitting at 4.23 (28-May-13). Morgans may have posted an update but i don't have access.
I would back any one of the analysts / analysis from the mainstream brokers posted above over the BBY report and some random LIC which cannot be named.
Either way take your pick... the difference between valuation is all about market share and timing for ACR / Axiron. Those brokers who assume Axiron can achieve 20% in the US market by 2017 tend to value the opp in the $2-$3 range while those who see 30% value it in the +$4 range.
As no one can tell the future - that argument is academic - reading the tea leaves i see 20% by 2017 as the worst case scenario and therefore there is the potential for significant upside if Axiron takes share over the next couple of years (moving from 14% today to >20%+). Therefore i am betting on a $4 share price as a potential scenario but are comfortable buying this into the low $2's
As always - Do your own research.
Mita
ACR Price at posting:
$2.33 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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