number crunching on commercial success !, page-3

Blackphantom given characteristics are likely to mimic Dongfang the key will be what quantity.

At pre drill expectations based on NSAI's old 2011 assessment we should be looking at 88 cps for Cua-Lo alone. Add in CA and around $1 or a bit more. Thats using the broker yardstick of 50c per mcf of gas.

If we get more than the 4TCF then its a case of scaling up the 88cps proportionately.

However, and its a big however one of the best pieces of sale evidence of a new discovery in recent times was the T/O over Cove Energy. Cove was bought for $2.128B (AUD) after an auction that included Shell and Thai state company PTTEP. Cove held 8.5% of a 30TCF discovery off east Africa.(It also held 10% of a PSC off Mozambique which was at 2D seismic stage)

Compared to the broker value of 50c per mcf, the initial t/o bid was around $1.30 per mcf rising to $1.52 by the final offer.

That would make our 25% share of pre drill estimates(105 only) worth around $1.30 plus other assets.

Now I am not saying those figures will be achieved but they are very real signposts that our 50c valuation basis is probably light. Certainly in the case of a takeover we should see much more value unlocked.