Yes, I am more confident now than before. I asked a question re; extent in a previous post as I am trying to assess the size. I believe flow will be good with low-medium levels of C02 (which is why I want the size of the reservoir). I am estimating C02 from the compartment of around 25-35%. If its lower than this then it will be a bonus. If higher it will come down to reservoir size, plus appraisal upside. Its too complicated for me to make an assessment but NEN will know the cut-off - i.e based on other variables what is the C02 limit eg: it could be economic even at 40-60% C02.
I am convinced we have a very important discovery/well which may be one of the reasons for the delay. Cua lo-1 may be the well we produce from.
Pre-drill, I was more confident about Ca Ngu (block 120), as the amplitudes are better defined in an updip scenario - updip from 120-CS-1X, the BHP well. I am confident that BHP missed. It sounds a bit blaze but I am sure they actually intended to drill the Ca Ngu position.
Also, to understand how the SP will behave on a 'dud' 120 announcement you'd have to know how the announcement will be made. If its with B105, I'd say it will be negligible, it its separate it will get smashed. It doesn't make sense I know, but there have been examples in the past where this has occurred. Additionally, if B105 misses the markets expectations i.e low side of 3.9-14Tcf, then it will also get smashed on a dud 120 announcement. The other thing to note is that if we get an announcement next week there wont be a lot of liquidity - which means the SP will go vertical up/down on a good/bad event. If nothing is announced next week then we will see a slow burn down due to another missed milestone. Again, it doesn't necessarily ring alarm bells but the market wont see it like that.
I bought two large parcels last week, one at $0.42 and $0.40 in advance. That's me done.
NEN Price at posting:
39.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
