off to 32c and beyond soon ?, page-124

Lol Lambda, lot's of manipulation but it all pales in the face of the economic cycle, in fact what you call "manipulation" is most often the SM positioning into the cycle.
RE is a nascent industry, distorted by the great Chinese deception, but underlying that is the broader economic cycle and if you look around you'll find the same pattern with most Basic Materials stocks, particularly industrial inputs such as metals & minerals.

Have a read: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3618.html

Clearly we are now in stage 3 Expansion and Recovery but after the most disruptive global contraction amongst the developed countries for 80 yrs it's been slow & patchy until now. Plenty of anecdotal evidence emerging that normal service is now resuming.

"A period in which the real GDP grows; recovery from a recession. When business begins to improve a bit, firms will hire a few more workers and increase their orders of materials from their suppliers. Increased orders lead other firms to increase production and rehire workers. More employment leads to more consumer spending, further business activity, and still more jobs. Economists describe this upturn in the business cycle as a period of expansion and recovery."

Note the date of the article, Feb 06, 2008 - "All of this data would suggest a peak in the economy has developed and that the stock market (usually 6-9 months behind the economy) has already topped. Technical models indicate the crest for global markets was in October."

Yet time after time here punters are saying technical models don't work, lol.

The distortion with RE was that they were the greatest thing since sliced bread and therefore demand would override the cycle, however irrational exuberance priced them out of their economic threshold, the Chinese supply deception was revealed and guess what, the cycle won, big time.

Main question in my mind thru most of 2012 was the RE "story" a crock, eventual conclusion was no, but it was going to take some time to stabilise and then any recovery was captive to the cycle.

Now Lambda you can call that "manipulation of the entire RE sector" for as long as Coles sell Baked Beans but I've already sold down 40% of my Fins, will add further to my Basic Materials (incl Lynas), probably Energy and already built a small position in gold specs. Have a good look at ARI, leveraged to both Basic Industry & Capital Goods, what a sweet ride, note Ds's comments re Tech stocks and his subsequent positioning along the cycle, smart.

Not sure what the current LT rate of return is out of the stock market, normally just shades property & bonds, but let's just guess 7%. Ever wondered why some money managers generate LT returns 2/3X the average? Generally you'll find they are very adept at positioning money along the cycle, well ahead of the thundering herd.

LT Lynas holders got trapped by the RE "story" at the very end of the last cycle, had to watch Lynas progress thru an extended & difficult start up phase, and now we're sitting patiently as the next cycle develops. Ever surfed Lambda? Know that feeling as the swell just picks up the back of the board before the wave face forms and you start to gather its inertia? ATM I'm salivating at the thought of the adrenaline rush you get as the wave catapults you forward, well before the crest.

Zoom out from the Lynas/RE microcosm occasionally, and you'll sleep much better at night.