Good post Shadow ! - lots of food for thought in there - just a few random comments into the mix -
Yes AOH have quite a lot of NCU and have a separate resource for it and dont use CU EQ reporting - They have a similar disclosed JORC resource of in ground copper to CDU around 1.5mt plus gold and a profitable working mine in Finland yet their market cap is only $87m compared to CDU,s $400m - It did seem a curious decision by Xstrata not to take up their 51% option but maybe they were gun shy after the Exco deposit didnt integrate at E.H
You rightly bring up the shortcomings of the rail line to Townsville, this was one of my questions as to how they are going to get line capacity to ship DSO ore prior to the rail spur being completed and I expect the DSO re will be heavier tonnages than CU in concentrate. so the point you make about the rail issues further leads me to think CDU will not be able to sell their magnetite at a profit in the short to medium term time-frame.
Shadow are you suggesting CDU will make a play for AOH or look to some form of J/V - W.M said this wasnt on his agenda but I can see how it would be very attractive to the top 3 Chinese holders- What happens to the dividends if they go down this road ?
CDU Price at posting:
$1.83 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
