the collapse of etf gold - paper gold, page-175

I posted something similar to this late last year but worth repeating here.
Over 860t was sold last year out of etf's from a base of 2632t and now only around 1770t remains. ETF sales are almost certain to be much lower than 2013 levels simply because etf's now hold a third less than they did a year ago. If they sold 860t again, it would be almost 50% of current holdings. That is highly unlikely with the POG now much lower, near cost of production and amid increasing reports of Indian import restrictions to ease. With elections coming up this year, unpopular restrictions being eased are a high probability. There must be a lot of pent up demand in India. ETF traders will look at all of these factors and will likely not be as quick to sell as they were during all the talk of QE taper while the POG was still significantly above cost of production. Two more years of ETF selling above 850t and ETF holdings will be almost zero. That won’t happen so ETF selling easing is a 100% certainty in the near term. At the same time Chinese demand continues to grow and Indian demand is looking very likely to grow again. For all we know ETF’s may actually be net buyers. Couple that with increased Asian demand and what happens to the POG?

Latest from JP Morgan (article dated 6 Jan 2014);
“We expect that the trade policy blocking Indian gold imports will weaken somewhat and we also anticipate that outflows from gold ETFs will stabilize in the coming year, and begin to rise in 2H2014.”
“A slower pace of gold mine growth in 2014 and 2015 is likely as lower prices feed into project delays and lower capex.”
“We also still believe that central banks will be net buyers of gold in 2014 and 2015. All this should see prices stabilize and move modestly higher to round $1285/oz by the end of the year.”
http://www.mining.com/jp-morgan-turns-ever-so-slightly-bullish-on-gold-price-18004/