interesting, page-17

The accumulated interest of BEPPA was just icing. The power BEPPA had was the fast approaching maturity date. Unfortunately PXUPA are perpetual and that pressure is non-existant.

Their is value in both PPX/PXUPA. But we might not truely know until Jan 29th when the offer closes. Though I suspect it will be extended and PPX will just allow acceptances to trickle in.

We need to know Coastals intentions. Then we know where the value is.

If they converted their 20% that would eliminate a decent chunk of PXUPA liability. That would increase the market value of the remaining hybrids - though if the offer gets extended it will cap the PXUPA price. And would increase the PPX shares too. If they then go for a board position PPX will rise further.

But, their is always the chance nothing will happen. That Coastal will just sit on 19% below the take over threshold. PPX will close the offer and not increase the offer.

Then it just goes back to market forces. Both PPX and PXUPA are illiquid. PPX losing money. PXUPA depending on PPX. Both drift lower in time.

Why didnt Coastal vote their 13%?

I think short term, PPX is probably the better return. Or atleast, it will be the more volatile of the two. Not much short term downside. But the upside is if Coastal converts.

Short term PXUPA has limited downside but virtually no upside, with the exception of PPX suddenly making an improved offer. Or a third party (possibly Coastal) making an increased offer.

Long term, PPX hasnt addressed its issues (eg hybrids, profitibility) and is risky.

Long term PXUPA has more chance of getting a higher offer from either PPX or Coastal. Or re-rating if enough people cash out in the current offer. And has less risk due to seniority. Eventually PXUPA will own PPX. Coastal might accelerate that process.

I dont think their is any chance of Coastal getting holders their $100. They wont ammend the constitution because PPX will over ride them. They probably struggle to replace the RE. So they seem powerless to effect change. Other than the fact they can now negotiate one-on-one with PPX.

So I'd say ST - PPX is value. LT - PXUPA is value. But Jan 29 could provide more answers.

The best outcome for PXUPA would be if Coastal now start buying PPX. Firstly it would push the sp up meaning 250PPX is worth more. But secondly, they could use PPX position to leverage their PXUPA position.

Buy 10% PPX. Get board seat or force EGM. Roll the board. Cash out 20% of PXUPA at $100.

But if they are relying on converting 19% into PPX, they would no longer hold PXUPA. So getting an increased offer is less likely.