Excellent words Hotwolf that are appreciated.There has been quite a bit written in the last couple of months about the dubious nature of forward PE ratios for the very reasons you mention.
I learnt alot from the 1987 crash and until today have not gone backwards on an investment in a decade. Fortunately its lost profits as I had already recovered my outlay in profits over 4 years which is a very useful risk management tool.
The human dynamic is hard for me to ignore but it certainly requires reassessment. Psychology has been an amateur study of mine from uni days and I have found it very useful in understanding behaviour so I will be reluctant to discard it as its probably provided a useful net benefit over time.
A tool I used to use but have weaned off in recent years is playing devils advocate with myself. I think thats going to come back into the armoury straight away.
The key is always to learn, adapt and then win again.
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