It might not be obvious, but the media were huge winners in the sharemarket glories of 2013. With Ten Network and Fairfax Media still battling headwinds, and News Corp's newspaper and publishing arm set adrift from its faster growing entertainment business, you would be forgiven for thinking media had a gloomy year.
But while the broader market returned just over 15 per cent last year, Macquarie Group research shows media returned an eye-popping 66.3 per cent, albeit after a shocking 2012 for traditional companies such as Ten and Fairfax. The big winners were News Corp's spin-off, 21st Century Fox, and Southern Cross Media.
Long regarded as a sector where investment decisions have often been led by the heart over the head, the media's sharemarket rally did not reflect or translate into a surge in advertising during the past year, says media buyer Harold Mitchell. And he's not seeing evidence of a surge to come in 2014 either.
His company, Aegis, tips modest advertising growth of 1 or 2 per cent in 2014, slower than the major world markets such as Europe and the US. But Mr Mitchell says this could accelerate quickly if consumer confidence picks up.
Peter Wiltshire, group sales and marketing director at newly listed Nine Entertainment, is more upbeat on the advertising outlook, tipping 3 per cent growth.
But beyond the perennial questions about the state of the economy and advertising market, this year presents fresh challenges for the established media companies.
Banks and superannuation funds are joining wealthy families, institutions, the government, private equity and philanthropists in sinking money into new ventures.
Melbourne publisher Morry Schwartz will defy the print critics by launching a weekend product, The Saturday Paper, this year. And publishers Fairfax and News Corp face overseas entrants in the Guardian Australia, which recently became one of the country's top 10 websites, and the Mail Online, the biggest English-language website in the world, which just hired a top news editor.
Even sport - traditionally one of the highest rating areas for media - is creating new competitors. The AFL is investing further in its in-house website and Collingwood, the AFL's richest club, has built the league's first club TV studio. In addition, the football club will spend about $1.5 million on its digital media division in 2014.
Meanwhile, search engine Google and social media remain a headache for traditional media by nabbing advertising dollars.
With digital now accounting for more than 30 per cent of ad dollars, Mr Mitchell expects this to rise to a phenomenal 40 per cent by 2015-16, taking share from other mediums. He describes it as cheaper and more efficient than other mediums, but lacking the ability to build brands like TV and print.
Mr Mitchell says while there will be new sites, ''people tend to go back to the ones they know. It's hard to break into the top 10 websites.''
News Corp's Australian boss, Julian Clarke, recently said News was ''happy to have the blue'' with new competition. The ''beaut part about what's happened with all this segmentation and fragmentation is that it's tough for everybody to either sustain their current business or to enter into a new market. So they're going to have their hands full,'' he said.
In November, a new audience measurement tool called EMMA - which tracks readership across mobile, tablets and online, as well as print - showed that The Sydney Morning Herald was the most widely read publication from November 2012 to October 2013, with 4.85 million monthly readers.
With major media-buying agencies estimated to be shifting about 20 per cent of print advertising revenue to digital, print faces more struggles in 2014.
Magazines, in particular, will seek relief after losing a much higher percentage of revenue than they are losing in readership.
Major publishers Fairfax (owner of BusinessDay) and News have different approaches to print. Fairfax says it will continue to print newspapers so long as it is profitable, whereas Mr Clarke said his company was ''totally dependent on keeping print going''.
But they are similar in two ways: they are closely watching the take-up of digital subscriptions, and they prefer EMMA over readership figures from market research company Roy Morgan.
Ben Willee, general manager and media director of Spinach Advertising, says media companies won't be willing to pay for both, and Roy Morgan would probably win. ''It would be a big deal for EMMA to win,'' he says, a victory that would rely on the pockets and patience of its publisher backers.
But Steve Allen, managing director of media research firm Fusion Strategy, has described the flight from print by advertisers as ill considered.
''Portals have great trouble equalling the reach single-issue newspapers can supply, home pages also struggle to provide the same reach capability, and less than 10 individual internet sites can provide similar reach as single issues of newspapers,'' he said recently.
''Reach of particular target audiences is still what most advertising have as one of their primary media performance goals.''
It's been a good start for the year for TV, the largest single advertising medium with 31 per cent of the national ad expenditure. The cricket, like the Aussie Ashes team, has been a roaring success for channels Nine and Ten, which paid a record $550 million between them to broadcast the Tests and Big Bash.
''Everyone is desperate for sport,'' Mr Willee says.
Nine says that without a good start to the year, ''you're playing catch-up from day one. The key is having content which can maintain the big audiences driven to the primetime programs, by the cricket, and that content being powerful enough to engage audiences and drive strong numbers through to Easter and beyond.''
Seven West Media chief executive Tim Worner says he is ''expecting to start [2014] strongly and the response from advertisers to our programming has been terrific. I think a bit more positive and a bit earlier than recent seasons.''
And after years of poor ratings and a string of financial losses, Ten says it has had its strongest start to a year since 2011 and this week saw a rare rally in its share price. The network, which is fourth in the ratings behind the ABC, said in a statement that the share price rise might be related to positive coverage of its Big Bash League ratings.
Ten boss Hamish McLennan is cautiously optimistic about Ten's turnaround, but JPMorgan analysts Jarrod McDonald and Thomas Beadle this week said Ten's ratings problems ''have no quick fix'' and require time and spending on programs to win back ratings.
But history shows it only takes two hit shows to revive a television network.
Earlier last decade, the Seven network had faced a period where it struggled to secure ratings, but hit shows Desperate Housewives and Lost helped it regain its momentum.
It's also impossible to know which shows will strike a chord with the public, says Mr Willee.
According to industry body Commercial Radio Australia, commercial radio ad revenue grew by 2.8 per cent to $355.7 million in the six months to December, driven by growth in Melbourne and Perth.
But Sydney's radio market will be closely watched. Controversial - and top-rating - radio duo Kyle and Jackie O have jumped from Southern Cross Austereo station 2Day FM to rival FM station Mix 106.5.
Mix will become a new station, owned by Australian Radio Network, rebranded Kiis FM. The question remains whether the duo can take their audience with them, or if 2Day can hold on to its market with a new line-up that includes former Spice Girl Mel B.
Melbourne radio faces two unknowns this year: the departure of high-profile breakfast duos, Kate & Dave from Nova, and Matt & Jo from Fox, with both stations overhauling their line-ups.
Among the listed media companies, analysts expect revenues to rise at Nine, Ten, real estate classified business REA and job ad company Seek in this financial year. Revenue will be flat for Seven West Media, and fall for Fairfax and News Corp.
This week's decision by 21st Century Fox to delist from the Australian stock exchange will put a dampener on overall returns and disappoint local investors looking for growth.
Mr Mitchell says TV will do well in 2014 because it has ''re-embraced doing what people want'' - pointing to the focus on sporting events such as cricket. Radio will continue to maintain its place because, he says, it is clever at picking out target markets. He expects print to continue to struggle. ''Confidence is holding everything back,'' Mr Mitchell says. ''The good news is the economy is still strong.''
This story was found at: http://www.theage.com.au/business/new-year-holds-promise-for-tv-and-online-media-20140110-30mie.html
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