Guys,
I think you're definitely analysing too much :)
Butch, we don't know what's under that 10m of hydrpcarbons, whether it be oil or gas condensates. At this stage, without further info, one would think that it is most llikely to be water. Based on my understanding, there is still hope because as we know, the Cretaceous channel is pinched against the salt dome, which serves as a seal. If the Upper Cretaceous sits on a different strat trap to that of the Lower Cretaceous, then it is possible for the lower main Cretaceous channel to hold oil since it will have its own reservoir and seal. The question is... is the reservoir homogenous in that it is one common reservoir all the way through with the same composites, etc. If so, then it's hard to imagine how oil can be found in the Lower Cretaceous.
BUT... as much fun as it has been :) the real problem that we face is that we just don't have the information available to make any such judgement calls. IMHO, I'd expect target depth (top of main Cretaceous objective at around 3700m) to be reached very soon. No doubt we will hear more about it very soon if anything good is found :)
Cheers mate,
618
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