CDU 0.00% 23.5¢ cudeco limited

surely this must be a buy?, page-68

  1. 1,554 Posts.
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    Hopefully, the quarterly report will answer some of the basic questions.

    Being CDU it will still be noted for what is not said.

    I'll keep my expectations simple for 2014, as CDU sees plenty of expectations set, with varying results in the past.

    2014
    -NCu Will be sold in 2014. Simplest part of the infrastructure, a shakey thingo and and big rotating equipment thingy. (technical terms, try and keep up :-)

    2015
    - Sulfides will be processed and sold. Name plate throughput will be reached. Production will not be capitalized.

    A great deal of cash flow will be put aside for stage 2, this will allow the HC dividend speculation to continue for another half decade.

    Given the progress on the milestones, 23/41 are reported on as complete, remainder are showing about 3-8% progress every three months.

    Given cost control takes precedence over time to delivery, I can't see this changing - It takes $$ to crash a project with extra resources to complete quickly. This is not "transparent" (thus the view).

    I believe I have around 4-6 months left to double holdings on the back of the usual. Slight risk a spectacular report is released on NCu but I think that will be Q2-Q3 '14.

    Chinese demand may drop, lowering cash inflows,(noted that forecasters were wrong for '13, '14 may not be so lucky..)

    so holding Cu for higher prices not as important as demonstrating business cash flows from production to start to mend credibility.

    Question will then be, how much will be spent on further development, plant rectification etc. I think the risk of a total F-up, Ravensthorpe style very low. Just the normal commissioning type stuff (you know the _ these are Chinese fuses, can't source the spares here in Australia, type stuff) There is always something...

    Has anyone seen the CDU 20ft containers for shipping product yet ?

    Timing of these may yield hints to dates, but we shouldn't be guessing about cash flows by H2 '13. Neither should management.

    Have the hire companies provided a Forklift or preferably a very large IT (Scoop it in, change attachments, lift it on the truck...)

    Finally, I am dubious of mining rates and stockpile numbers - if you have been reading the reports for the last year, daily rates v stockpile v last known numbers. Something is not ringing true, but I can't put my finger on it..

    Happy speculating (but get rich slow eh)
 
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