cdo update, page-29

longreach

What you speak of is a form of hindsight bias. When past issues that were solved (in the past) are used to justify or predict a current crisis when there is no relationship between them I think, IMO, we can safely conclude RED has more problems than has been reported.

Whilst you may be correct about past issues (and I’m not going to bother debating them in this forum since they had all been solved over a year ago) the nexus of the problems within RED are firmly focussed on the current crisis.

The lead up to this disaster was that RED took out a $25 million loan, proceeded to make changes to an approved mining plan (lodged with the government and bank), caused a failure in a tailings dam and 1,000 people to lose their jobs. The reaction from the government was to slap a CDO on the mine and for the bank to threaten foreclosure unless they were repaid in full. RED made two attempts to raise money and ultimately recapitalised at rock-bottom prices. These are the facts! And none of these matters in any way is influenced by a previously solved issue.

As an engineer I agree that plans need to be dynamic. But not to the detriment of the rules imposed on the project by the banks and the various government departments; not to mention obligations to relay such changes to the ASX and shareholders (remember rules such as continuous disclosure). If a new mine plan was submitted to these parties then I will humbly apologise but since there have been no reports by RED on the ASX confirming this we can assume the changes in a mine plan were not just dynamic but ultimately disastrous. The facts speak for themselves.

To the contrary, some people on HC have managed to predict issues in RED before they have occurred and have generally entered the forum the moment they have an insight into a perceived future problem. Some came in with concerns over two years ago, some at the changeover of management and some at the time of the crisis post April 2013. But none have come into this forum so late in the piece to justify recent negligence with previously solved issues.

The current crisis (now about 9 months in duration) has not been solved. It is a Black Swan event. It is an industry embarrassment.

One day the Siana project may restart. But I will make a prediction that if it does it won’t be under the current management unless there are considerable expenditures and timeframes involved.

I will buy you a coffee next time I’m up your way so we can continue the discussion. Until then regards.