thoughts for 2014, page-9

I have adjusted my little pricing model based on the limited information made available. Bit of a messy process as (a) this latest update states pcp profit as $10.4mio but their report for the period states $10.9mio, Also they have 4.7mio shares on issue.

On the basis of comparing previously stated pcp NPAT of $10.9mio and eps of 15c things are still going backwards. In fact I have eps down to 10.9c or down over 25%.

Margins continue their multi-year decline, for example the NPAT/Sales falls to about 5.7% compared to 7.1%

Having said all that I am looking for a half year dividend of 7.5c, and full year (a revised) 12c.

A point of note from the market update is they state "....in conjunction with a decline in FX rates during the current period will result ........." Unless things have changed, MCP has a policy of covering their FX exposure 6 months in advance. As such the current period FX needs were already covered and the present FX rate should have no bearing on the reported results.

All that said I reckon MCP offers reasonable value at these levels