Auto, I've had several goes at responding to your post in a meaningful way and I suppose it comes down to (for me) the following.
I think that at this end of the investment spectrum, we simply have a different approach.
I don't believe there is any point in crunching numbers subject to such dynamic change over the next 1-6 months.The financial capacity of the company at this point in time covers operational survival alone, nothing else and certainly zero growth.
For example your suggested income from Pathfinder is gas only, and one well only. This project will be multi-well and the income potential while robust is completely notional. Then there's the potential for oil at pierre for relatively small capex. Its a wildcat but its a cheap one and fully partnered.
EFS is the game changer and again I see no point in trying to impose a rigid value metric on these wells until we know what we've got. On that score, whatever they've seen down well so far is enough for them to be funding processing. Neither the Hz leg or oil processing would be necessary if significant hydrocarbons hadn't been hit on the way down.
If its good enough for two 3rd party funders to back us to double our market cap, its good enough for me. These tie ups are proven and operational Auto, unlike the EOS/BCC situation where had the former hung around and coughed up, we'd be laughing. AKK has done what BCC couldn't.
We're a blip on the radar. $20mill MC and <$1.5 mill annualised income. Peanuts! Will further placements occur, highly likely, but hopefully at a re rated SP, for producing assets, and with net production looking a hell of a lot better than today.
You also mention oil price risk etc. This is every day operational risk for any oil business big or small in my view.
Its a risky business Auto is it not?. Not for the faint of heart. This one stacks up for me on positive probability. Not for you it would seem.
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