Weekly Fundamental and Technical Analysis Prospects - Week Starting 17h Feb 2014 (No. 102) Here’s this week’s FA and TA List. The newer items first and those carried forward from last week towards back of list (some of the items from last week have a time horizon of more that one week). All listed market caps are undiluted (and do not include escrowed shares) (Note: Max time for any entry on list will be 4 weeks after which time it will be removed).
Important Note: Remember just because it appears on the list does not necessarily mean it will rise in price... it may actually fall or do nothing. So it is critical that you perform detailed research on each stock first and make your own mind up to whether invest or not. I suggest you run a stop-loss at all times when trading/investing. How tight your stops are depends on your threshold to risk and financial pain. Lastly I take no responsibility for the accuracy of the information provided as I do not have the time to research all the facts that have been provided. Best of Luck.!
Weekly Fundamental Analysis Prospects ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CDY - Biotech in Sydney,
17/02/2014
A Sydney based Biotech in the Cancer diagnostics & therapeutics space. In 2013 CDY acquired the Japanese hair regrowth company Advangen. The established and potential revenue streams are too numerous to list in this summary. Flying under the radar, CDY is trading well below intrinsic value. Technicals and fundamentals are both supportive of some large positive moves & and upside risks are substantial. NO DEBT• CASH FLOW POSITIVE• > A$4M in the bank• Operational Burn rate less than A$770K New sources of Royalty Revenues: Highly Likely with an extensive list of entities performing R&D incorporating CDY’s Midkine Patented assets.(ref ‘Summary of Interests’ below)Sales Revenues: Highly Likely, distribution agreements have been signed and many other unrealised growth strategies are on the plan and not included in the post previous valuation.(ref ‘Summary of Interests’ below) New Revenue Streams: New Products to market are highly likely with multiple products in clinical trials phase.(ref ‘Summary of Interests’ below) Success from oncology program: "In our view, if the company is successful in moving into the clinic with the oncology program, the quality of that asset will put Cellmid in the same echelon as US Biotechs that are developing first-in-class antibodies as cancer therapeutics (e.g. Onconova, Oncomed, Verastem)." Feb 2014 ‘RM Research’Market Caps (USD): Onconova $324m, Oncomed $801m, Verastem $307m, Cellmid $ 21m Assets. Increases in asset portfolio: Highly Likely - A history of generating new patents and R&D releases incorporating new uses for existing IP. Vested Partnering / Takeover Likely - synergies exist with big pharma and established clients. With a small market cap, large diversity of IP, demonstrated growth in hair products and being the IP supplier to high growth organisations. Poster: Trae (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$22.6m)
CTR - Oil explorer/producer in Guatemala.,
17/02/2014
Aztam-5 has been slowly progressing along, and TD is expected to occur in the next fortnight, according to the recent announcements. Having gotten through the limestone, there won't be long to go. Recent pump from a HC-promoted company (the Next Oil Rush) also provided plenty of interest. Peter Landau has joined the Board, has 9m shares, and has seen the 100m shares from RRS be converted. Poster: Ricdan1985 (STT Accuracy: 26.1% - Ranking No.17 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$11.9m)
SBN - Biotech ,
17/02/2014
A micro-cap biotech company - in the development and commercialisation of point of care rapid diagnostics including illicit drug screening devices which they are trying to give new life to but most importantly they have cash, a new board and are looking for acquisitions. This is a biotech with a very short pathway to commercialisation via their existing product, but it seems the new board wants to add value via acquisition. Howard Digby is involved with Forrest Capital who I believe were the ones behind the following successful biotech acquisitions/transactions which all resulted in significant re-rates. Recently seen some board changes with some well experienced directors being hired. Summary:- $1.5m cash at end of Dec- looking for acquisitions- flow of announcements due from their existing technology- low cash burn- $3.5m diluted market cap- Top 20 hold 60%- Directors hold approx 10% plus options Poster: Prestonian (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$3.6m)
MNZ - Online Retailing,
17/02/2014
Back door listing of dealdirect.com, self claiming Australian no 1 online department store, so I looked at MC of Myer and David Jones, minus their real estate part, I would have thought 50-100mil MC is fair for MNZ. They also have $6mil in the bank. Poster: Littlecorn (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$327.3m)
MOO - Multi metallic mine in North Qld.,
17/02/2014
"The operator of the Monto owned Baal Gammon copper/silver mine in North Queensland, Snow Peak Mining Pty Ltd (Snow Peak), has informed Monto that they intend to commence production from Stage 1 of the Baal Gammon mine in February 2014. Mining activities at the site have been underway since 31 October 2013 in preparation for production. Monto expects cash flow derived from the Baal Gammon royalty to commence soon after the commencement of production."Snow Peak and CSD (tin) are the new operators of a refurbished mill which is due to be started up at the end of the month. Monto have a million cash and will be cash flow positive very soon. They are also about to start an aggressive drilling campaign in March in high grade ground. Large intercepts of silver lead copper and gold are to be expected. Importantly they will have a lot of high grade tin ore to be milled when the concentrator is further upgraded. Been sitting at .004c for quite a while and should put some runs on the board once the new mill is fired up. Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.12 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$5.3m)
PGI - Gold and silver with a primary focus on Latin America,
14/02/2014
PanTerra Gold Limited (PGI) is a gold and silver producer focusing on the development of gold and silver properties in Latin America. PGI utilizes Xstrata Technology's Albion oxidation process for treatment of refractory sulphide ores. PGI activities are concentrated in the Dominican Republic. Panterra Gold aims to establish itself as a gold and silver producer with a primary focus on Latin America. The company hopes to leverage off Xstrata’s technology (albion oxidation process) for the treatment of refractory sulphide ores. The process is designed to promote overall operational efficiencies. The company has already built up a portfolio of exploration concessions covering 300sqkm of copper/gold prospects in the Dominican Republic and Ecuador. from recent quarterly report:"Recoveries of gold in concentrate produced in the floatation circuit averaged 76.4% for the Quarter (October 74.4%, November 75%, December 79.3%) demonstrating continuing improvements due to ongoing flotation test work and optimisation. Silver recovery for the Quarter averaged 77.5%, with monthly recoveries of 74.9% in October, 75.6% in November and 81.2% in December.""During the Quarter, 7,166 Oz Au and 64,073 oz. Ag were shipped to the refiner, an increase of approximately 20% for gold and 21% for silver over the previous Quarter." Even these blended grades at 150,000 oz Au per annum at $1,000 per oz is $150M per annum production. We have increasing gold & silver production going forward. We have increasing revenue as a result going forward. Conclusion, PGI I beleive is dirt cheap at current prices. Poster: Telamelo (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$36.2m)
NEA - Web based mapping systems.,
13/02/2014
Today's announcement: nearmap ltd (ASX: NEA), Australia’s exclusive provider of frequently updated, high resolution imagery, has today launched nearmap Rail a world-first service aimed at providing ports, mining and rail industries with a unique set of tools and ultra-high resolution aerial imagery to monitor existing rail corridors and plan new ones. Exponential growth opportunity as NEA intend expanding across the world. Custom is public and commercial. Needs to do a little work around the mid sixties imo but should continue to climb. Has had good liquidity and strong support. Plenty of cash and cash flow. Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.12 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$198.6m)
LNG - Gas infrastructure in US,
13/02/2014
Cash: $13.8mMarket cap: $115m18 month Price Target: $2.25 by Proactive Investors(Full report: http://www.lnglimited.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CategoryId=190&CPID=1983&EID=17526114)Liquefied Natural Gas Ltd (ASX: LNG and U.S. Exchange: (OTC ADR Ticker: LNGLY) (“LNGL” or the “Company”) is an international developer of mid-scale Liquefied Natural Gas “LNG” projects and aims to be amongst the first five producers and exporters of U.S. LNG. The Company is fast tracking the development of its 100% owned flagship Magnolia LNG Project that is located in the epicentre of the burgeoning energy sector on the U.S. side of the Gulf of Mexico. Proactive Investors expects the new over-the-counter (OTC) trading facility in the U.S. will attract strong interest from international investors, seeking the “next” Cheniere Energy type investment opportunity. Proactive Investors believes that LNGL is at the beginning of a surge in share market re-rating; tracking a path by Cheniere Energy that saw its share price increase from US$2.68 to $43.94 in four years. Proactive Investors anticipates the Stonepeak funding terms should be satisfied by mid-2015 and that the 50% interest retained by the Company in Magnolia LNG will therefore value the Company at A$779 million or $2.25 per share. By end of 2016, our valuation increases to $6.91 a share for Liquefied Natural Gas. Poster: Accaeric (STT Accuracy: 46.7% - Ranking No.6 ) Click Here for originating post
PMY - Colombian base and precious metals exploration,
11/02/2014
2 year tenement moratorium recently lifted. Pacifico management identified over 2500km2 of highly prospective targets. Currently 2 projects - Tarso and Urrao. Looking at picking up two more tenements in the near term. (The first has just been acquired - and the most exciting!)Management: Chairman Richard Monti. Formally MD of Azimuth Resources (AZH) that got taken out by Troy (TRY) for $188mn in March 2013. This is his new project. Azimuth was a gold exploration play in Guyana so he knows South America very well. Colombia: Huge Copper/Gold in Chile and Peru but Colombia has had less than 5% explored.45% of the worlds copper production is from Andean Porphyry deposits. In the past 5 years, 75 mn ounces of Gold has been defined in Resources in Colombia. Poster: Spooner41015 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
Has US UK and Indian ventures. Main catalyst is the $19m conditional sale of its UK shale project. The market cap is just $9m at 1.2c. Clean Energy Projects• Pyrolysis Project - Carbon and Hydrogen Produced no CO2 -Multi Walled Carbon Nanotubes (MWCNT)- Carbon Nanofibres (CNF)• OptiBlend® Dual Fuel – USA/ India/ Bangladesh/ S.America Worth a bit of DD imo and can spike. They have limited cash flow but require this sale for a major rerate. Plenty of opportunity for all sorts of news from these guys. Experimental work being done for nanotube uses. Super hard concrete for roads in the US is a possibility. Shale sale relies on an IPO in the UK getting up, so word could get around if that starts to come to fruition? Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.12 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$11.4m)
PPX - Paper Print Distributor,
6/02/2014
Some aggressive selling in the last 2 day has seen PPX fall to a new low of 3.9c a massive sell off from $5 in 2008 During that time operating revenues have fallen from 7 billion across 35 countries to around 3.5 Billion today across 22 countries From the market updates PPX are profitable in 19 of the 22 markets it operates in but is getting smashed in Germany , UK and Luxemburg The company is in the midst of a battle to repair its balance sheet offering its Hybrid holders a share swap for their debt instrument . At the same time PPX is due to report first half earnings around Feb 20 .At this time they will almost of closed their final offer on the hybrids I believe Feb 28 and these holders will have to make a decision on whether to hold off , or take shares in the business The opportunity as I see it is that all the bad news is in the stock price and any sniff of confirmation of a turnaround or a surprisingly reasonable take up of the offer will see PPX spike strongly Revenue of 3.5 billion is a very big business , and if the reconstruction of operations , cutting staff numbers , and changing the sales process is effective under new management then PPX is a bargain at this level I have been reluctant to add any new predictions on the last few weeks as markets softened but at this price I am keen to get on the leaders board again in a long ST PPX prediction of 3.9c towards 10c over the next few months Poster: Firsova (STT Accuracy: 25.8% - Ranking No.18 ) Click Here for originating post
CASH $1.2m + $50m Exploration facility MCAP $16mShares 261mRampart Energy is exploring two areas of the North Slope of Alaska for both conventional and unconventional oil. The Company signed an agreement in May of 2013 to earn into leases owned by Royale Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:ROYL). Rampart believes that there is a very large upside in the area, as illustrated by the Prospective Resource numbers published in August 2013 and notes that exploration in the region is heavily supported by the State of Alaska’s incentive system which provides for exploration costs to be reimbursed. The work program currently consists of 3D seismic acquisition in 2014 and the drilling of two wells during 2015.Playing with the big boys TODAYS ANNOUNMENT Executed binding documents with Melody Business Finance LLC to provide US$50m in Funding to Rampart At the conclusion of using such a Facility the Company will have no net debt Torey Marshall commented “This is a watershed event for the Company and one that is almost unprecedented in the Junior energy space on the ASX. Essentially, the Facility provides for up to US$50m to be spent on exploration with no shareholder dilution, thus creating a massive leverage to Rampart shareholders who are exposed to this money, without the fear of dilution that would come from a raising of its size. Given your company’s market capitalisation of A$15m, its incredibly exciting for both shareholders and the Company alike to have this in place.” Looks like very good value. Poster: Stefan41 (STT Accuracy: 12.5% - Ranking No.20 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$14.4m)
DGX - Construction,
4/02/2014
Once a market darling DGX went south post GFC, and a poorly timed and executed run in the UAE, for anyone who has been watching this turn around story the transformation has been done without fuss and ceremony. For a long time Diploma was run as a family company despite being listed. A cap raising in August last year improved the liquidity of the company - it now has 430 million shares on issue. It is starting to run like a listed company, Diploma has stripped back the layers of it's operations to again focus on what is good at, construction. The cap raised improved the strength of the balance sheet, paid down debt and allowed the company to sell off GFC inventory. In a ravenous housing market in WA fuelled by a combination of cheap money, close to record low interest rates, and a rising population, the appetite for inner city living is growing, bubbling even. Perhaps the most crucial element of the DGX revival has been an influx of skilled workers filtering back down from the mine sites up North and inland as the WA mining industry moves from a largely construction phase into the production phase. An influx in workers will no doubt, in time, see the cost of labor reduce and the fight for tenders intensify, with operators offering more for less. Poster: P87 (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$17.9m)
TIS - Medical device/ Biotech.,
4/02/2014
Early birds should check out Tissue Therapies. Troubled by delay in CE Mark approval to sell its unique healing product (dyor) but has ten million cash, a substantial holder substantially increasing their holding, FDA approval to start a US trial (unfunded atm) and seems to want to form a base at thirty cents. I think it's headed for a tilt at forty two but not quite yet. There is strong support at twenty nine. Very quiet on the announcement front but if/when something positive happens it should do very well. The long term chart is the most interesting IMO. Can put in sudden stellar runs. Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.12 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$93.2m)
AGS - Uranium gold Australia,
3/02/2014
market cap 55millioncash in bank 22,650,000own 20% of ors who recently made a nice gold discovery at Maldon Construction commenced at the Four Mile project during the quarter In situ recovery mining commencing April 2014 First uranium sales scheduled for July 2014 On 31 January 2014 (post-reporting) Alliance announced that Quasar, with ACE dissenting, approved the Four Mile (ML6402) Revised Start-Up Plan and Program and Budget on 29 January 2014. The Revised Start-Up Plan and Program and Budget includes production guidance relating to the current or forthcoming year based on as series of assumptions Poster: Vogliobene (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.13 ) Click Here for originating post
Market cap $45m, SP 3.8c, 1Bn shares, 500 optionsFY13 sales to date $20m from approx 500T of sales. CY 2014 planning a total of 1500T of sales, with plant now proven at 22T per day and margin targets of $5-$8 Kg to convert tungsten to Fe W. Historical margins converting W to FeW are circa $8-$10 Kg. Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway unit IMC International Metalworking agreed to invest $80M in a different tungsten project in South Korea a few years ago, this provides me with some confidence in this market given significant majority portion of global feedstock originates from China. CY15 target for HAZ 2000Tand the next quarterly should provide an accurate cost base. Other benefits include low labour cost ex Vietnam, solid upstream distribution channel with Wogen onboard for global sales. ST Risk in that capital may be diverted to downstream HAZ owned Tungsten mine supply, with usual capital draining risks, potentially offset by reduced feedstock prices. Longer term, could see 10 cents out of this if free cash flows are banked.Not sure 25% upside will come in 4 weeks, but I've taken the punt that MC will get up this year... Poster: 383hq (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$39.4m)
AUQ - Zinc/Copper in Middle East,
29/01/2014
MC $17mCash, somewhere between $6-8m at this point i think. Sorry to be unimaginative, but there's only a few weeks left till His Royal Highness intervenes and officiates the long awaited mother of all JVs, with anticipated revised equity commitment terms making the project more profitable for Alara, while retaining their full exposure to 50% of $2b anticipated revenue. newsflow is supposedly lined up like ducks waiting to be rolled out as soon as this landmark agreement is signed. both the prince and the MD have 15c performance options riding on this outcome. expecting to see a gap up to those levels in anticipation of pending developments with offtake partners and other funding sources Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: 71.4% - Ranking No.1 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$17.9m)
RGU - Uranium in Australia,
28/01/2014
SP - $0.025 Market cap - $1.7 million Cash ~ $700,000No Debt*A very out-of-favour sector showing signs of a 2014 rebound.*High quality management for a nanocap. Includes former President of the Federal Liberal Party and former Chief Minister of the Northern Territory - Shane Stone. Also includes managing director of the Transcontinental Group of companies - Simon Trevisan.*Hand-picked scientifically targeted uranium exploration portfolio. Of particular interest is the Paroo Range Project in close proximity to Paladin's "Skal" and "Valhalla" deposits.*About 70 million shares on issue, with the Top 20 holding 80% of the stock. Katana Capital have become a recent substantial shareholder (#2) for what appears to be the long-term.*Possibility exists for a project acquisition with minimal dilution to deliver near term shareholder value. Poster: Verce (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$1.5m)
MBE - Mobile coms products and services,
28/01/2014
Mobile Embrace Limited: is a business-to-business and business-to-consumer provider of an integrated mobile and digital communications products and services. Australia, USA & Asia. Revenue from their Overseas expansion should have built up quickly during January 2014 and I would expect an update around mid February if that was the case. This should give the share price a good kick up. Guidance on the December quarterly and half year results could also be released shortly. Poster: RetiredYoung (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$93.7m)
CAF - Financial Services Company,
28/01/2014
Centrepoint alliance-$0.36C Market cap-$34 mill Centrepoint Alliance Limited operates as a non institutionally-owned financial services company in Australia and internationally. It primarily funds insurance premiums for corporate and retail clients, as well as is involved in asset finance operations. The company also offers financial advice and investment product solutions; and funds management, investment platform. Backing CAF as a turnaround after past legacy issues with the highly regarded John de Z walt leading the turnaround story. Have large offsets on books including taxable income of $39 mill before paying tax and $29 mill of franking credits. Upcoming HY will certainly indicate if the transformation of CAF is gathering pace. Poster: Ormond (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
Observed depth has been up front, no Iceberg trades witnessed and few ChiX trades hidden from non-DMA retail buyers. Bids outnumber offers 1.69:1 with strong support around resistance (0.029-0.031).Candlesticks (Bullish):Friday saw a reversal up off a ‘bullish matching low’ pattern . Poster: Trae (STT Accuracy: Unknown) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$22.6m)
PSY - Tech Development Company ,
17/02/2014
Sorry to the believers, but i feel that today is the last hurrah for this stock. Failure of the 50ema which also acted as a neckline for the reversal top formation and the 61% level probably means a target as low as 3c. See Chart in Link Poster: Mowibble (STT Accuracy: 71.4% - Ranking No.1 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$35.1m)
CTR - Oil explorer/producer in Guatemala.,
17/02/2014
Steady drop from 1.6 down to 1c, which will form a nice bounce and rise from here. Originally, spiked to 2.9c when news from Aztam-4 came out, and the same is expected this time around. Poster: Ricdan1985 (STT Accuracy: 26.1% - Ranking No.17 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$11.9m)
NCM - Gold in Australia/PNG,
12/02/2014
This is a very late entry for this stock [real money was to be made buying on its lows] but there is plenty of meat on the bone still. I am not hunting for much here but in my opinion there is a 15% gain here with very low risk. [I purchased stock @ $11.43 and my short term target is $13.53] See Chart in Link Poster: Dazedandconfused (STT Accuracy: 40% - Ranking No.10 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$8469.9m)
EDE - Clean Energy and Carbon nanofibres,
11/02/2014
Not the best of charts but may be very close to bottom. Extremely oversold .. the volume has been historically low. OBV shows only a slight decline over a long period. Bearish trend is now becoming consolidation. Strong spikes. Just filled gap. Poster: J8 (STT Accuracy: 35.7% - Ranking No.12 ) Click Here for originating post
(Mcap:$11.4m)
RER - Mineral Exploration in Australia and the DRC,
6/02/2014
Coming off a wide base with recent close above the 10 mth moving average. looks set for continuation based on confirmed recent respect of the 50 DEMA are recent golden cross, 50 DEMA is just starting to point in the right direction. Indicators just starting to show the all important higher trough that if confirmed in the next few days will signal continuation to the targets marked below on the weekly chart. FA trigger for continuation has been sprung on market with a surprise recent drilling ann. 12 week wait for confirmed results if all goes well but the speculators are already starting to nibble. DYOR Poster: Pilsner (STT Accuracy: 45.8% - Ranking No.7 ) Click Here for originating post
