tight shorts anyone?, page-21

Rob:
Using that strategy I must say you definitely did buy at the correct moment when NCM and other Goldies were oversold.

However I strongly disagree with the sentiment that it is now oversold and your subsequent short position. If you consider $10 overbought then I presume your placing a fair value of around $8 on this stock. I would consider that move to be picking up pennies in front of a steam roller as NCM has never historically (10 years) been at that low price and POG just keeps going up and up without relent.

Also whilst NCM has had a sharp move up after the $7 low, the trajectory of movement should never solely be an indicator of it being an over bought stock. Looking at a number of fundamental factors such as: why the fall, where NCM historically has been trading and the relative P/E ratios, Price/Sales, Price/Book plus its rising revenues stream from higher POG do not scream out to me that this overly frothy at the moment. My backyard shed analysis has this stock up in the mid teens at the current POG and easily into the $20’s if the POG creeps up another $50-100.

*as always this just my humble opinion and always DYOR